We’re three months away from one of the most highly anticipated NFL Drafts in recent memory and over half of the draft order has been set. With trades clearly on the horizon, here is our first mock draft for the bottom 18 teams. We are going to throw a few trades in to make the mock draft slightly more realistic and we will be using Pro Football Focus to grade each player. 

1. Indianapolis via Chicago

With a bidding war likely to happen between quarterback-needy teams for the first overall pick, we project that the Colts make a move to the first overall pick to get their quarterback of the future. The compensation will be swapping picks this year, Indianapolis’ second-round selection in 2023, and a first-round pick in 2024 and 2025. 

The Pick: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama (PFF Rank: 1)   

2. Houston

With the Colts swooping in and grabbing Bryce Young, the Texans will likely still take a quarterback with the second overall pick.

The Pick: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (PFF Rank: 11)

3. Arizona

The Cardinals just fired head coach Kliff Kingsbury, so it is unknown what direction Arizona will look with the third pick. It’s still safe to assume that they’ll take one of the top defensive talents to make up for the loss of J.J. Watt. 

The Pick: Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama (PFF Rank: 2)

4. Chicago via Indianapolis

After trading back to four, the Bears will look to beef up their defensive line after losing Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith this past season. With a slew of picks in the upcoming drafts, the future is bright in Chicago.

The Pick: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia (PFF Rank: 4)

5. Seattle via Denver

Nobody expected the Seahawks to be picking at five with the Bronco’s pick this year. Many had Seattle being a bottom feeder and Denver being a Super Bowl contender, well it was exactly the opposite and the Seahawks will be picking at five. 

The Pick: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson (PFF Rank: 5)

6. Detroit via Los Angeles (N)

Many thought that the Lions would be eyeing a quarterback, but Jared Goff reassured fans of his ability to lead the offense. That being said, it looks like Detroit will look to bring in some more defensive firepower. 

The Pick: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina (PFF Rank: 12)

7. Las Vegas 

With the Raiders likely moving on from long-time starting quarterback Derrick Carr, Vegas will likely be one of the teams in the bidding war for the first pick. In this mock, we have them staying put at seven and still finding their franchise quarterback.

The Pick: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (PFF Rank: 3)

8. Atlanta

The Falcons could be looking for a quarterback, but they have bigger issues with their roster. Having the second-lowest rank in quarterback pressures this past year means that they should address the issues with their defensive line,

The Pick: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson (PFF Rank: 7)

9. Carolina

Sam Darnold has possibly played his way to a starting job in Carolina next season. This means that the Panthers will probably not spend their first-round pick on a quarterback. This isn’t to say they won’t take a chance on a guy like Hendon Hooker in later rounds. As we saw in an elimination game against Tampa Bay in Week 17, outside of Jaycee Horn, the Panthers have nothing at the cornerback position. An upgrade at CB is the way Carolina goes at pick nine.

The Pick: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia (PFF Rank: 14)

10. Philadelphia via New Orleans 

In a trade that was made last year, the Saints traded their 2023 first-round selection to Philadelphia in a trade package. The Eagles, who are currently in the race for the Super Bowl will likely try to upgrade at defensive back.

The Pick: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia (PFF Rank: 9)

11. Tennessee

The Titans will probably be the first team to draft a receiver in this year’s class. They had one of the worst receiving corps in football last season and need to get whoever they decide to have play quarterback some help.

The Pick: Quentin Johnson, WR, TCU (PFF Rank: 8)

12. Houston via Cleveland

The Deshaun Watson trade continues to not look great for Cleveland, but amazing for the Texans. Houston will possibly try to get their newly drafted quarterback a weapon. Look for them to upgrade at wide receiver.

The Pick: Jordan Addison, WR, USC (PFF Rank: 13)

13. New York (A)

The Jets will probably look to upgrade at quarterback in free agency, leaving their biggest need at the offensive line. The first offensive lineman will be taken off the board with New York’s pick.

The Pick: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern (PFF Rank: 6)

14. New England Patriots

After narrowly missing out on the playoffs with a loss to the Bills, New England has two options with the fourteenth overall pick, wide receiver or offensive line. Either way, get Mac Jones some help. 

The Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State (PFF Rank: 22)

15. Green Bay

There are a lot of questions surrounding the Packers this off-season. One of the more minor ones that they are likely to address in the draft is the fact that they’ll only have one tight end on the roster. Pick fifteen should be an upgrade at the position.

The Pick: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame (PFF Rank: 16)

16. Washington

The Commanders are in a spot where they need to add a veteran quarterback in free agency and draft a project type of guy later in the draft. They will need to upgrade at defensive back in order to be competitive next season.

The Pick: Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M (PFF Rank: 19)

17. Pittsburgh

A few weeks ago, the offensive line looked like the most glaring issue for the Steelers, but after great play down the stretch, Pittsburgh may look to go in a different direction. Picks seventeen and thirty-two will have some combination of the offensive line, defensive line, and cornerback.

The Pick: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State (PFF Rank: 17)

18. Detroit 

The Lions may look to give Jared Goff some help with this pick. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Detroit select a wideout with this pick.

The Pick: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina (PFF Rank: 31)

The results of the postseason will have a huge impact on how this year’s draft goes. We will have to wait to release our second mock draft until after the conclusion of the NFL Playoffs.

FULL RECAP:

1. IND: Bryce Young
2. HOU: C.J. Stroud 
3. ARI: Will Anderson
4. CHI: Jalen Carter 
5. SEA: Bryan Breese
6. DET: Cam Smith
7. LV: Will Levis
8. ATL: Myles Murphy 
9. CAR: Kelee Ringo
10. PHI: Nolan Smith
11. TEN: Quentin Johnson 
12. HOU: Jordan Addison 
13. NYJ: Peter Skoronski
14. NE: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
15. GB: Michael Mayer
16. WAS: Jaylon Jones
17. PIT: Paris Johnson Jr.
18. DET: Josh Downs